Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.226003 0.254520 0.285390 0.321313 0.362001 0.406690 0.459546
2025-11-09 0.170320 0.205355 0.246047 0.296889 0.358839 0.432038 0.525332
2025-11-16 0.136087 0.174359 0.221693 0.284736 0.366803 0.470431 0.611874
2025-11-23 0.110512 0.149652 0.200923 0.273339 0.373549 0.508145 0.704018
2025-11-30 0.095521 0.136203 0.192431 0.276358 0.399397 0.574634 0.845755
2025-12-07 0.079372 0.118599 0.175527 0.264895 0.403041 0.610727 0.950839
2025-12-14 0.067928 0.106022 0.163881 0.259113 0.413861 0.658722 1.081994
2025-12-21 0.058717 0.095430 0.153606 0.253692 0.424129 0.707141 1.222084
2025-12-28 0.053242 0.089938 0.150490 0.259185 0.452833 0.789749 1.434092
2026-01-04 0.047220 0.082652 0.143342 0.256654 0.467180 0.849759 1.616416
2026-01-11 0.042738 0.077378 0.138862 0.258059 0.488626 0.925572 1.841673
2026-01-18 0.039356 0.073595 0.136474 0.262863 0.517027 1.018646 2.117579
2026-01-25 0.034462 0.066475 0.127226 0.253679 0.517726 1.059824 2.299496
2026-02-01 0.029862 0.059311 0.116952 0.240964 0.509337 1.081419 2.444463
2026-02-08 0.026678 0.054535 0.110750 0.235718 0.515926 1.136016 2.675329
2026-02-15 0.023826 0.050057 0.104556 0.229561 0.519560 1.184857 2.903186
2026-02-22 0.022281 0.048131 0.103449 0.234449 0.549114 1.298161 3.313391
2026-03-01 0.019885 0.044038 0.097113 0.226458 0.547052 1.336132 3.539193
2026-03-08 0.018091 0.041058 0.092862 0.222735 0.554792 1.399637 3.847085
2026-03-15 0.016499 0.038333 0.088836 0.218951 0.561764 1.462463 4.167097
2026-03-22 0.015650 0.037245 0.088493 0.224285 0.593286 1.595489 4.718973
2026-03-29 0.014466 0.035198 0.085575 0.222560 0.605612 1.678519 5.140289
2026-04-05 0.013574 0.033759 0.083977 0.224100 0.627289 1.791983 5.683110